考虑经济效益的风储联合发电系统的最优功率预测

Optimal Power Prediction of Wind Power Storage Combined Power Generation System Considering Economic Benefits

准确的风功率预测及经济效益最大化问题一直是电力系统关注的热点,同时也决定风储联合系统参与调度的积极性.因此,文中构建了考虑经济效益的风功率预测模型和风储联合调度模型.首先,分析不同损失函数下的最优预测理论,并选择基于成本导向的增强回归树建立考虑了预测误差成本的风功率预测模型,该模型通过降低预测误差成本提高风电场经济效益;然后,以风功率预测模型的实验结果为基础,构建风储联合调度模型,最大化风电场的经济效益;最后在两个风电场中验证文中所提方法的有效性和先进性.

The economic benefit of wind turbine combined dispatching has always been the focus of attention in power system dispatching.At the same time,the economic benefit determines how much power the unit generates.Therefore,this paper constructs a wind power forecasting model and a wind-storage joint scheduling model that consider economic benefits.First,analyze the optimal prediction theory under different loss functions,and select a cost-oriented enhanced regression tree to establish a wind power prediction model that takes into account the cost of prediction errors.This model improves the economic benefits of wind farms by reducing the cost of prediction errors;Based on the experimental results of the wind power prediction model,a combined wind-storage dispatch model is constructed to maximize the economic benefits of the wind farm.Finally,the effectiveness and advancedness of the proposed method are verified in two wind farms.