人口结构对房价的影响及其区域差异性研究

The Influence of Population Structure on Housing Price and Its Regional Differences

厘清人口结构影响住房价格的内在机理有助于科学分析房价和准确预测房价走势。基于此,选取2004-2016年的省级面板数据,运用面板数据模型分别从全国层面与区域层面实证检验人口结构对住房价格的影响。研究发现,从全国层面来看,少儿抚养比与房价变动的方向相反,但老年抚养比与房价正相关,且高等教育比例越高,住宅价格越高。此外,城镇化率在一定时期内推动了房价的上涨,流动人口对于房价的影响也十分显著,人口流出将抑制房价上涨,而人口流入将拉升房价,"移民"现象使得中国房地产面临着控房价和去库存的双重压力。从区域层面来看,人口结构因素对各区域住房价格的影响呈现出明显的差异性,在经济较为发达的东部地区,人口结构因素会显著影响房价,而在经济发展相对缓慢的中西部地区,人口结构因素对于房价的影响并不显著,房价上涨更多是由于经济普遍性的周期发展带来的个人收入提高所致。

Population is the basic driving force of national development. Clarifying the internal mechanism of population structure affecting housing prices helps to scientifically analyze housing prices and accurately predict housing prices. Based on this, this paper selects the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016, and uses the panel data model to empirically test the impact of population structure on housing prices from the national and regional levels. The study finds that, at the national level, the ratio of child rearing is opposite to that of house price changes, but the old-age dependency ratio is positively correlated with house prices, and the higher the proportion of higher education, the higher the housing price. In addition, the urbanization rate has promoted the rise of housing prices in a certain period of time. The impact of the floating population on housing prices is very significant. The outflow of population will curb the rise in housing prices, while the population inflow will increase housing prices. The phenomenon of "immigration" makes Chinese real estate face the control of housing prices and the double pressure of going to stock. From a regional perspective, the impact of demographic structural factors on housing prices in different regions shows significant differences. In the more economically developed eastern regions, demographic structural factors will significantly affect housing prices, while in the central and western regions where economic development is relatively slow, the impact of demographic factors on housing prices is not significant, and the rise in housing prices is more due to the increase in personal income brought about by the cyclical economic development.