基于IOWA算子的国内旅游总收入组合预测——以安徽省为例

Combined Forecast of Total Domestic Tourism Income Based on IOWA Operator--Taking Anhui Province as an Example

首先对诱导有序加权算术平均(IOWA)算子的组合预测模型进行了介绍,然后分别采用多元线性回归模型、三次多项式模型以及Holt-Winters无季节指数平滑模型对安徽省的国内旅游收入进行预测,接着建立基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型并评价其有效性.结果表明:基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型的预测精度较三种单项预测法最高.又根据IOWA算子得出的权重,对安徽省2019~2023年的国内旅游总收入进行预测.结果显示:未来五年,安徽省国内旅游总收入仍将持续稳定增长,2023年将达到14806.0亿元,年均增长率分别达到17.26%、16.61%、15.95%、15.45%和15.07%.

Firstly,the combined prediction model of induced ordered weighted averaging operator(IOWA)operator is introduced,and then the multiple linear regression model,cubic polynomial model and Holt-Winters no-seasonal exponential smoothing model are used to predict the domestic tourism income of Anhui Province.Then a combined forecasting model based on IOWA operator and evaluate its effectiveness is established.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction model based on IOWA operator is the highest among the three single prediction methods.According to the weights derived from the IOWA operator,the total domestic tourism revenue in Anhui Province from 2019 to 2023 is predicted.The results show that in the next five years,the total domestic tourism revenue of Anhui Province will continue to grow steadily.It will reach 1480.60 billion yuan in 2023,with an average annual growth rate of 17.26%,16.61%,15.95%,15.45%and 15.07%.