城镇化质量、人力资本聚集及产业结构升级的动态关系——基于PVAR模型的实证分析

The Dynamic Relationship among Urbanization Quality, Human CapitalAggregation and Industrial Structure Upgrading: An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model

基于2004—2018年省域面板数据构建PVAR模型,从全国和区域层面分析城镇化质量、人力资本聚集和产业结构升级的动态关系。结果表明:(1)从全国层面看,城镇化质量、人力资本聚集和产业结构升级自身协调性强且相互具有正向促进作用。(2)从区域层面看,自东向西,城镇化质量、人力资本聚集程度和产业结构协调程度递减;中部城镇化质量对产业结构升级的影响为正,但人力资本聚集与产业结构升级没有形成双向互动关系;西部三者之间均未形成良性互动关系。最后提出相关政策建议。

Based on the 2004-2018 Chinese provincial panel data,a PVAR model was constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship among urbanization quality,human capital aggregation and industrial structure upgrading at the national and regional levels.The results show that:(1)from the national level,urbanization quality,human capital aggregation and industrial structure upgrading have strong self coordination and mutual positive promotion.(2)From the regional level,from east to west,urbanization quality,the degree of human capital aggregation and the degree of industrial structure coordination decrease;urbanization quality in central China has a positive impact on industrial structure upgrading,but there is no two-way interaction between human capital aggregation and industrial structure upgrading.There is no positive interaction among the three in the west.Finally,some relevant policy proposals are put forward.