基于SD模型的地铁盾构施工人员安全能力仿真

Simulation on safety capability of metro shield constructors based on SD model

为研究地铁盾构施工人员安全能力的动态演变规律,减少地铁盾构施工安全事故,建立基于系统动力学(SD)的地铁盾构施工人员安全能力仿真模型。首先,从施工人员个体特质、组织管理以及施工环境3个方面提取盾构施工人员安全能力影响因素,并运用结构方程模型(SEM)验证主要影响因素及因素间的关系;然后,运用SD模型构建地铁盾构施工人员安全能力仿真模型;最后,对成都地铁11号线盾构施工人员进行实证分析。结果表明:地铁盾构施工人员安全能力在前8 h缓慢上升,后4 h快速下降;在前5 h,提高施工人员个体特质、改善施工环境以及提高组织管理水平均能提高安全能力;提高组织管理水平能够减缓后4 h安全能力的下降趋势。

In order to study the dynamic evolution laws of the safety capability of metro shield constructors,and reduce the safety accidents in the metro shield construction,a simulation model on the safety capability of metro shield constructors based on the system dynamics(SD)was established.Firstly,the influencing factors on the safety capability of shield constructors were extracted from three aspects including the individual characteristics of the constructors,organization management and construction environment,then the main influencing factors and the relationship between them were verified by using the structural equation model(SEM).Secondly,a simulation model on the safety capability of metro shield constructors was established by using the SD model.Finally,the empirical analysis was conducted on the shield constructors in Line 11 of Chengdu Metro.The results showed that the safety capability of metro shield constructors increased slowly in the first 8 hours,and decreased rapidly in the later 4 hours.Improving the individual characteristics of constructors,the construction environment and the level of organization management could all improve the safety capability.In addition,improving the level of organization management could slow down the decrease trend of safety capability in the later 4 hours.