基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价研究

Study on evaluation of emergency capacity for urban waterlogging disaster based on Z-numbers

为降低城市内涝灾害应急能力评估过程中评价信息模糊性对评估结果的影响,提出1种基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价方法。对城市内涝灾害形成机理进行分析,从定性与定量相结合的角度建立评价体系;针对群决策过程中的信息不确定性问题,采用语言术语集表达评价信息;提出基于Z-numbers最优最劣方法(ZBWM)确定指标权重,并利用Z-numbers改进的交互式多指标决策方法(ZTODIM)计算备选方案的优势度;通过与传统决策方法进行对比分析,验证其灵活性和可靠性。结果表明:运用该方法可对重庆、武汉、常德和萍乡4座城市的内涝灾害应急能力展开有效评价,为今后改善城市内涝灾害应急能力提供参考。

In order to reduce the influence by the fuzziness of evaluation information on the assessment results during the evaluation process on the emergency capacity of urban waterlogging disaster,an evaluation method for the emergency capacity of urban waterlogging disaster based on Z-numbers was put forward.The formation mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster was analyzed,and the evaluation system was established from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative combination.Considering the problem of information uncertainty in the process of group decision-making,the evaluation information was expressed by using the language term set.The weights of indexes were determined by using the BWM method based on the Z-numbers(ZBWM),and the TODIM method improved by the Z-numbers(ZTODIM)was used to calculate the superiority of alternatives.The flexibility and reliability of the method were verified through the comparative analysis with the traditional decision-making method.The results showed that the proposed method can be used to effectively evaluate the emergency capacity of urban waterlogging disaster in Chongqing,Wuhan,Changde and Pingxiang.It can provide reference for the future improvement of emergency capacity for urban waterlogging disaster.