配电设备的风险评估与状态检修决策方法

Risk assessment and condition based maintenance decision-making method of distribution equipment

针对当前配电设备采用的定期检修方式未将可靠性与经济性综合考虑的问题,提出1种基于风险评估结果确定配电设备状态检修决策的方法。首先,根据配电设备健康状态评估结果计算配电设备实时健康指数,利用指数模型对配电设备的实时故障率进行计算;然后,采用最小路法计算配网中所有设备的平均实时故障率,并结合停电时用户损失严重度、配电设备损失严重度和环境损失严重度确定配电设备故障后果严重度;最后,利用风险偏好型效用函数量化计算配电设备的经济运行风险水平,计算各配电设备的相对风险值,并以相对风险值为指标确定各配电设备的状态检修策略。结合算例对所提的方法进行验证,结果表明该方法合理有效。

Aiming at the problems that the periodic maintenance mode adopted by the distribution equipment at present doesn’t comprehensively consider the reliability and economy,a condition based maintenance(CBM)decision-making method of the distribution equipment based on the results of risk assessment was proposed.Firstly,the real-time health index of distribution equipment was calculated according to the assessment results of its health status,and the real-time failure rate of distribution equipment was calculated by using the index model.Secondly,the average real-time failure rate of all the equipments in the distribution network was calculated by using the minimum path method,and the failure consequence severity of distribution equipment was determined by combining with the severity of users’loss in power outage,the severity of distribution equipment loss and the severity of environmental loss.Finally,the economic operation risk level of distribution equipment was quantitatively calculated by using the utility function of risk preference,then the relative risk value of each distribution equipment was determined,and the CBM strategy of each distribution equipment was determined by taking the relative risk value as the index.The proposed method was verified by an example,and the results showed that the method was reasonable and effective.