基于系统动力学的区域经济与物流协同发展研究——以广东省为例

Research on Regional Economy and Logistics Co-development Based on System Dynamics——Take Guangdong Province as an Example

文中运用系统动力学的知识,通过收集广东省2008年至2018年间的统计数据,导入VENSIM软件中,基于区域经济增长、物流供需比等变量建立完整的区域经济与物流仿真模型,模型真实性较优,并进行相关仿真分析,现得出如下结论:广东省区域经济与物流整体呈现出一种协同发展的局面;粤港澳湾区物流基础设施完备,物流投资建设应强调统筹兼顾,提高投资转换率;加强物流产业人才的培养与引进,努力提高从业人员素质;并且在今后政策颁布中进一步鼓励第三方物流产业的增长,努力弥补物流供需差额,为区域经济增长助力。

This article used the knowledge of the system dynamics,by collecting statistical data from 2008 to 2018 in Guangdong province,import the VENSIM software,based on regional economic growth,the logistics supply and demand than variables,such as establishing a complete simulation model of regional economy and logistics has a better model of authenticity,and the simulation analysis,the following conclusions are:Guangdong province regional economy and logistics presents an overall coordinated development situation.The logistics infrastructure in the Guangdong.Hong Kong-Macao bay area is complete,and the logistics investment should emphasize overall consideration and improve the investment conversion rate.Strengthen the training and introduction of talents in the logistics industry,and strive to improve the quality of employees.And in the future policy promulgation to further encourage the growth of the third-party logistics industry,strive to make up the gap between logistics supply and demand,for regional economic growth.