独立经济体货物贸易与服务贸易互动分析——基于1980-2013年的贸易数据的回归分析

On the Mutual Influence Goods Trade and Service Trade of Independent Economies in the Long-term——Regression Analysis Based on Trade Data from 1980 to 2013

货物贸易与服务贸易是贸易的两大组成部分。世界各经济体由于其经济发展程度不同,其货物贸易与服务贸易的相互影响的程度也各不相同。文中运用OLS回归模型,对世界几大洲和若干国家进行货物贸易与服务贸易出口额总量进行回归分析,研究其相互之间的影响关系。研究发现:①在和平年代的较长期的时间段内,经济体都趋向于稳定增长。②货物贸易与服务贸易总量的协整关系并非普遍存在,而是与其经济总体状况密切相关。③货物贸易与服务贸易相互影响,相互制约。根据结论,文中提出了要均衡发展货物贸易与服务贸易,以提高国家的总体经济水平的建议。

Trade in goods and services are two major components of trade.Due to the different degrees of economic development,the economies of the world have different degrees of interaction between their trade in goods and services.This paper uses the OLS regression model to perform regression analysis on the total value of exports of goods and services trade in several continents and several countries in the world,and studies their relationship.The study found that:①In the longer period of peace,the economies tended to grow steadily.②The co-integration relationship between the total trade in goods and services is not universal,but is closely related to its overall economic situation.③Trade in goods and services affect each other and restrict each other.Based on the conclusions above,this paper puts forward proposals to balance the development of trade in goods and services in order to improve the overall economic level of the country.