产业结构升级能否有效扩大就业:理论分析与实证检验

Can the Industrial Structure Upgrade Effectively Expand Employment?

实现产业结构优化升级是增长方式转变的重要支撑点。在产业结构升级和积极谋求更高质量、更充分就业的宏观背景下,基于产业结构升级影响就业作用机制,利用中国30个省区市2003-2017年的面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,产业结构合理化和高度化可以有效扩大就业总量。分区域的结果显示,在沿海地区和具有"服务化"倾向的地区,产业结构的不合理对就业的抑制作用更为强烈,但产业结构高度化在不同地区可以通过发展服务业扩大就业。这一结论的政策启示在于产业结构升级与就业扩张可以同时实现,但需要结合不同地区的实际情况,合理区分产业升级的具体内涵和形态,加快劳动力转型发展。

Realizing the upgrading of industrial structure is an important support point for the transformation of the growth model, and how to ensure structural adjustment and employment expansion is the focus of policy attention. In the context of the upgrading of industrial structure and the active pursuit of higher quality and full employment, the article conducts empirical research using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017 based on the analysis of the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading affecting employment. The results show the rationalization of industrial structure and the development of high-level can effectively expand the total employment.The results of the sub-regions show that the irrationality of industrial structure in coastal areas has a stronger inhibitory effect on employment than in inland areas, the high industrial structure can effectively expand employment in coastal and inland areas, through the development of service industries. In view of this, the policy implications of this paper are that industrial structure upgrading and employment expansion can be achieved simultaneously. However, it is necessary to distinguish the specific connotation and form of industrial upgrading according to different regions, and accelerate the transformation of the labor force.