区域发展规划促进了经济增长吗?——基于DID模型对珠三角城市群的实证分析

Does Regional Development Planning Boost Economic Growth?--An Empirical Analysis of Urban Agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta Based on the DID Model

在粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要颁布之际,对区域发展规划是否促进了经济增长进行评估显得尤为迫切。本文以2008年国家发展和改革委员会发布的《珠江三角洲改革发展规划纲要》为自然实验,收集了281个城市2004-2017年的面板数据,运用双重差分法(DID)对珠三角城市群的经济增长水平进行了效果估计。估计结果表明:珠三角发展规划并未有效驱动珠三角城市群经济增长,而政府支出、固定资产投资、工业化和居民储蓄是导致广东经济增长放缓的主要因素。基于实证分析的结果本文提出了政策建议。

While the Outline of Development Planning for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was issued, it is particularly urgent to evaluate whether regional development planning has promoted economic growth. Taking the Outline of the Reform and Development Plan of the Pearl River Delta as a natural experiment,this paper collects panel data of 281 cities from 2004 to 2017, and estimates the economic growth level of the cities in Pearl River Delta by using difference-in-difference method. The estimation results show that the PRD development plan has not effectively driven the economic growth, and the level of government expenditure, fixed asset investment, industrialization and household savings are the main factors leading to the slowdown of Guangdong’s economic growth. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward policy suggestion.