美国对华态度及经贸往来的长期趋势新探--基于情感分析的方法

A New Probe into the Long-term Trend of American Attitude towards China and the Economic and Trade Exchanges--A Method Based on Sentiment Analysis

中美关系正常化40多年来,美国对华态度及经贸往来有着怎样的长期变动趋势,二者关系如何,都值得深入研究。以1977-2019年美国历届总统公开发言中提到中国的文本内容为对象,借助R语言的Syuzhet情感分析方法,得到其中情感态度的变化趋势,结合历史事实验证分析,发现美国总统所代表的美对华态度与中美关系的基本走势具有较强的一致性;将情感态度与中美经贸往来的主要指标进行趋势比较分析,发现二者具有较强的相关性,且对未来的中美关系和经贸往来趋势的预测具有一定的参考意义。

Over the past 40 years since the normalization of China-US relations, the long-term changes in the attitude of the US towards China and its economic and trade exchanges are worth studying in depth. Based on the text contents of Chinese mentioned in the public speeches of successive president of the United States from 1977 to2019, this paper uses the Syuzhet sentiment analysis method in R language to obtain the changing trend of emotional attitude. Based on the verification analysis of historical facts, it is found that the US attitude towards China represented by the president has a strong consistency with the basic trend of China-US relations. By comparing and analyzing the trend of emotional attitude and main indicators of Sino-US economic and trade exchanges, it is found that there is a strong correlation between them, and it is of certain reference significance to predict the future trend of Sino-US relations and economic and trade exchanges.