耕地保护情景下长浏平丘陵区土地利用变化模拟——FLUS模型的应用

Simulation of Land Use Change in Changliuping Hilly Area under Farmland Protection:Application of FLUS Model

以长浏平丘陵区为研究对象,2005和2015年的土地利用现状数据为基础,运用FLUS模型,从自然、社会、经济3个方面选取了12个驱动因子,分析了各土地类型的出现概率和空间分布情况。将研究区的基本农田保护区作为限制性因素,依据实际情况及土地规划文件的要求,运用马尔可夫链设定目标参数,并运用自适应惯性竞争元胞自动机模拟研究区2025年的土地利用状况,探究了区域耕地保护工作成效及土地利用变化发展趋势。结果表明:(1)到2025年,各用地类型总体基本保持现有的基本格局,其中耕地受城市工矿居民用地扩张的影响比较严重,但由于基本农田保护区的限制性开发政策,占用耕地的规模得到了切实有效的控制。(2)城市工矿居民用地持续保持扩张的态势,但空间分布得到了较为合理的安排,整个区域的土地利用朝着节约、集约、科学和可持续的方向发展。通过检验精度系数,表明FLUS模型适用于模拟该地区土地利用变化状况,且模拟效果良好。在耕地保护情景下占用耕地的规模得到了有效的控制,耕地得到了切实有效的保护。

Based on the current land use data in 2005 and 2015,the FLUS model was used to select 12 driving factors from nature,society,and economy.The occurrence probability and spatial distribution of each land type in the hilly area of Changliuping were analyzed.In order to explore the effectiveness of regional cultivated land protection work and the development trend of land use changes,the basic farmland protection areas in the study area were used as restrictive factors.According to the actual situation and the requirements of land planning documents,the Markov chain was used to set the target parameters.Cellular automata adapted to inertial competition simulates land use in 2025.Research results:(1)By 2025,each land type will basically maintain the existing basic pattern.Farmland is seriously affected by the expansion of urban industrial and mining residents’land.However,due to the restrictive development policy of basic farmland protection areas,the scale of occupation of cultivated land has been effectively controlled.(2)Urban industrial and mining residents’land continues to expand,but the spatial distribution has been reasonably arranged,and land use in the entire region is developing in the direction of conservation,intensive,scientific and sustainable.Analysis conclusion:By examining the accuracy coefficient,it was shown that the FLUS model was suitable for simulating land use change in the region,and the simulation effect is good.Under the scenario of cultivated land protection,the scale of cultivated land occupation was effectively controlled,and cultivated land was effectively and effectively protected.