老年人“美好生活”水平测度与政策洞见——基于主成分分析的三指数模型

Study on the"Better Life for the Elderly"Index and Related Policy Proposals in China--Three Index Model Based on Principal Component Analysis

基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查2014年的数据,使用主成分分析法从9个测量指标中提取测度老年人“美好生活”的3个一级指数——安全指数、生存指数和享受指数,并合成老年人“美好生活”综合指数(BLI-E)。分项来看,生存指数、综合指数呈对称的正态分布,安全指数右偏分布水平较高,享受指数左偏分布水平偏低;分地区来看,各省份的老年人“美好生活”指数差异不大,养老服务供给不充分问题更突出;分组来看,老年人中女性比男性、农村比城镇、高龄与低龄、居家养老比独居或机构养老的“美好生活”水平更低。当前制约我国老年人实现“美好生活”的主要瓶颈是养老资源供给不足情况下的共享不均衡问题。建议加大力度解决我国老年人“美好生活”发展不充分的问题,着重解决不平衡问题,打造综合性、全方位的老年人“美好生活”保障体系。

There is still a lack of research on the measurement of"good life"index of the elderly.In this paper,principal component analysis method is used to extract three first-class indexes including safety index,survival index and enjoyment index from nine measurement indexes to measure the"better life"of the elderly,and to synthesize the"better life"index of the elderly(BLI-E)based on CLHLS 2014 data.In terms of sub items,the survival index and BLI-E are symmetrical normal distribution,the right distribution level of safety index is higher,and the left distribution level of enjoyment index is lower.In terms of regions,there is little difference in BLI-E in different provinces and the problem of insufficient supply of the aged services is more prominent.In terms of groups,the level of"better life"of the elderly women is lower than that of men,rural areas than that of cities,the advanced elderly than that of the young elderly,and home-based care than that of living alone or institutional care.At present,the main bottleneck restricting the realization of"a better life"for the elderly in China is the unbalanced sharing under the insufficient supply of supporting resource for the elderly.It is suggested that more efforts should be made to solve the problem of inadequate development of the"better life"of the elderly in China,the problem of imbalance development should be solved and a comprehensive and all-round"better life"security system for the elderly should be established.