基于效率视角的浙江省2030年碳排放配额分析

Allocating carbon emission allowance from the perspective of efficiency at the city-level in Zhejiang Province

测算浙江省1995—2015年的碳排放总量,构建STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归分析各影响因素对碳排放总量的影响,结合情景分析法对浙江省2030年的碳排放总量进行预测,最后以情景预测值为总量限定在效率视角下进行碳配额并分析各市剩余碳排放空间。结果表明:(1)人口总量、人口城市化率、人均GDP和煤类能源占比对碳排放总量起促进作用,人口总量、人口城市化率、人均GDP和煤类能源占比每增加1%,浙江省的碳排放总量会分别增加3.578%、0.588%、0.295%和1.310%;(2)保持经济和城市化高速发展的同时,大力实施产业结构调整和节能减排的情景3最符合现实发展要求,情景3下,浙江省碳排放总量在2030年将达到47902.57万吨;(3)ZSG-DEA模型的碳配额结果显示,2030年宁波市碳配额最多,其次为杭州市,丽水市碳配额最少。从绝对剩余碳排放空间看,宁波市剩余碳排放空间最大,其次为杭州市,舟山市剩余碳排放空间最小。从相对剩余碳排放空间看,丽水市相对剩余碳排放空间最大,其次为绍兴市,舟山市需在2015年碳排放总量的基础上减排9.47%。

This paper calculated the carbon emission in Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015,and analyzed its influencing factors using STIRPAT model.Then the total carbon emission in 2030 was forecasted by scenario prediction,and was allocated to each city according to efficiency.Finally,the residual carbon emission space in each city was analyzed.Results showed that:(1)The total population,population urbanization rate,per capita GDP and proportion of coal type energy were the factors which accelerated the carbon emission,and with 1%increase of each factor increased the total carbon emission by 3.578%,0.588%,0.295%,and 1.310% respectively.(2)Scenario 3 matched the development requirement most by adjusting industrial structure,saving energy,reducing emission and at the same time keeping the rapid development of economy and urbanization.Under this scenario,carbon emission in Zhejiang Province would reach 479025700 tons in 2030.(3)The quota allocation results of carbon emission showed that,based on the ZSG-DEA model,Ningbo had the most quota in 2030 followed by Hangzhou,while Lishui had the least.According to the absolute residual carbon emission space,Ningbo had the largest residual space,followed by Hangzhou,while Zhoushan had the smallest.According to the relative residual carbon emission space,Lishui ranked first,followed by Shaoxing.Zhoushan should reduce emission by 9.47% on the basis of 2015.