面向复杂评价和决策的数据分析模型及其在烟草行业的应用

A data analysis model for complex evaluations and decisions and its applications in tobacco industry

随着烟草行业信息化建设的快速发展,各类辅助决策系统相继建立。然而,大多数辅助决策系统依赖于传统的统计学分析,无法对复杂的主观性强的评价和决策信息进行有效表示与分析,辅助决策存在一定局限性。据此,本文以复杂评价和决策问题为研究对象,以烟草行业为应用背景,借助模糊论、概率论以及粗糙集(rough sets,RS)等理论,尝试去构建一种广义上的数据分析方法。该方法结合心理学,应用范围广,能充分体现评价人的主观意识和决策心理,能为卷烟产品定性定量分析评价、生产经营管理决策提供更为合理的理论支持。

In recent years,with the rapid development of informatization construction in tobacco industry,various assistant decision-making systems have been set up successively.However,the majority of assistant decision-making systems still rely on traditional statistical analysis,and they cannot effectively handle information descriptions and analysis for complex and strong subjective evaluations and decisions,which have some limitations in aiding the decision making.Hence,in order to study complex evaluations and decisions,taking complex evaluation and decision-making problem as the research object and tobacco industry as an example of application,this paper tries to construct a generalized data analysis approach by means of fuzzy sets,probabilistic theory,rough sets and so on.The approach combines psychology,fully embodies the subjective consciousness and decision-making psychology of the appraiser,has a wider application range,and can provide a theoretical support for qualitative and quantitative evaluations,and management decisions of tobacco productions.