从“战略协调”到“战略竞争”:中美关系的演进逻辑

From Strategic Coordination to Strategic Competition: The Logic of Evolution of Sino-U.S.Relations

中美建交40年来,两国关系始终在合作与对抗之间来回波动。那么中美关系起伏变化的根本原因是什么?两国之间目前的战略竞争到底是长久之势,还是仅是特朗普政府推动下的短期现象?本文以战略互动和利益平衡为分析视角,认为40年来中美两国的关系定位可以划分为战略协调、非敌非友、利益攸关方和战略竞争四个阶段。中美关系起伏波动的根本原因是,在两国之间错综复杂的利益关系网中始终并存着一对"互斥"的利益集群,中美关系正是以战略安全为主的消极利益集群和以经贸依赖关系为主的积极利益集群相互平衡的结果。对未来的中美关系而言,由于战略安全的消极利益属性日趋明显,中美战略竞争将趋向常态化,竞争的广度和重点领域的深度都有可能进一步增强。但另一方面,经贸依赖、反恐、防扩散和一系列全球治理议题上的利益的积极属性不可能在短时间内完全失去对中美关系的正向"拉动"作用,因此,中美战略竞争很难在短期内滑向全面战略对抗甚或战略冲突的境地之中。

In the past forty years since the establishment of diplomatic relations,Sino-U.S.relations have been shifting between cooperation and confrontation.As such,what causes have led to such kind of fluctuating relationships between these two great powers?Is the present strategic competition going to endure or is it just a temporary phenomenon due to the foreign policy of the Trump administration?From the perspectives of strategic interaction and balance of interest,Sino-U.S.relations in the past forty years have experienced four periods of strategic coordination,non-enemy and non-friend,stake holders,and strategic competition.The causes of the shifting relationships between China and the United Sates are identified as a consequence of a pair of mutually exclusive interests-a group of negative interests mainly related to strategic security,and a group of positive interests mainly related to economic interdependence.In terms of the future of Sino-U.S.relations,the increasing negativity of strategic security will dictate that the strategic competition between China and the United States shall become "a new normal." However,in the short term,the positivity of interests in areas such as economic and trade ties,fighting terrorism,nonproliferation,and a series of global governance issues,will be sufficient to play as a "pulling" role in the bilateral relations.Therefore,the strategic competition between China and the United States will not lead to a full strategic confrontation or conflict in the foreseeable future.