中国经济增长驱动因素识别研究——基于马克思扩大再生产理论的视阈

A Study on the Identification of Driving Factors of China’s Economic Growth:Based on Marx’s Theory of Extended Reproduction

本文在马克思扩大再生产理论的基础上,放宽了马克思关于所有可能影响经济增长率因素的数据假定,从一般意义上分别对"两部类"划分和"四部类"划分条件下经济增长的内在规定进行了模型推演。结果表明,经济增长率与第Ⅰ部类单位预付资本上所包含的追加资本以及第Ⅰ部类总产品价值占全社会总产品价值的比例呈正相关关系,与第Ⅰ部类资本家消费的绝对量和工人消费的绝对量的比值呈负相关关系。此外,不同经济发展阶段和不同经济周期阶段所对应的决定经济增速的三个方面的因素也各不相同,并且一个国家的长期经济增速存在"先升后降"的一般规律。而中国的经济增长事实与从马克思扩大再生产理论中得出的结论基本吻合。当前我国正处于由工业化中期向工业化后期转变的过渡阶段,随着第Ⅰ部类投资份额逐渐趋于下降,消费将成为未来拉动经济增长的关键引擎。

On the basis of Marx’s theory of extended reproduction,this paper relaxes Marx’s data assumption on all factors that may affect economic growth rate,and deduces the internal rules of economic growth under the conditions of"two categories"and"four categories"in a general sense.The results show that,economic growth rate has a positive correlation with the additional capital included in the prepayment capital of the first category and the proportion of the value of the first category’s total products in the whole society’s total value, and has a negative correlation with the ratio of the absolute consumption of the first category’s capitalists and the absolute consumption of workers.In addition,the three factors that determine economic growth are different in different stages of economic development and different stages of economic cycle,and there is a general law of"rise first, then fall"in a country’s long-term economic growth rate.The fact of China’s economic growth is basically consistent with the conclusion drawn from Marx’s theory of expanding reproduction.At present,China is in the transition stage from the middle stage of industrialization to the late stage of industrialization.With the gradual decline of the investment share of the first category,consumption will become the key engine to stimulate economic growth in the future.