林业政策事件的金融市场影响分析--以我国国有林场改革为例

Analysis of Financial Market Impact of Forestry Policy Events:A Case Study of State-owned Forest Farm Reform in China

林业政策事件对林业行业发展改革具有直接推动作用。我国国有林场改革作为林业发展中的典型政策事件,兼具了林业发展的公益性和经济性,在林业政策中具有较好的代表性,而金融市场的变化情况能够很好地反映林业行业的发展前景。文中选取我国国有林场改革这一典型的林业政策事件,通过事件研究法,采用市场模型测算国有林场改革对相关林业股的市场影响。结果显示,国有林场改革政策的颁布显著提高了相关林业股的股价,表明国有林场改革对林业行业是利好信号,得到了投资者的积极回应。不同时期国有林场改革对金融市场的影响均十分显著,但是效果不同。鉴于政策发布的时间和内容的差异对资本市场的不同影响,建议注重政策颁布的时点并加强对政策的解读,使更多投资者关注林业资本市场,促进林业行业发展。

Forestry policy events play a direct role in promoting the development and reform of forestry industry.As a typical policy event in the development of forestry,the reform of state-owned forest farm has both the attributes of public welfare and economy,which is well represented in forestry policies.The changes in the financial market can well reflect the development prospects of forestry industry.The paper selects the typical forestry policy event of state-owned forest farm reform,and adopts the market model to calculate the market effect of state-owned forest farm reform on relevant forestry stocks by using the event research method.The results show that the promulgation of the reform policy of state-owned forest farms has significantly increased the share prices of relevant forestry stocks,indicating that the reform of state-owned forest farms is a positive signal for the forestry industry and receives a positive response from investors.The effect of the reform of state-owned forestry farm in different periods on the financial market is very significant,but with different results.According to the different effect of the time and content of the policy on the capital market,it is suggested that attention should be paid to the time of policy promulgation and the interpretation of the policy,so as to attract more investors to the forestry capital market and promote the development of the forestry industry.