基于改进SIR模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情预测及防控对疫情发展的影响

COVID-19 epidemic prediction based on improved SIR model and the impact of prevention and control on epidemic development

基于约翰·霍普金斯大学系统科学与工程中心获取的2020年3月4日至4月4日期间意大利、韩国、英国、美国、法国、西班牙、德国等7个疫情比较严重国家的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)确诊、死亡、治愈病例数据,以SIR模型为基础,通过添加新的参数表征感染系数随时间的变化,并利用回归分析进行参数估计,对7个国家疫情的发展情况进行模拟和预测,并分析各国控制接触率等防治措施对于疫情发展的影响。结果表明:改进的SIR模型对COVID-19疫情发展趋势的分析基本可靠;除英国和美国以外,其他5个国家的疫情现阶段已经得到初步控制,而英国和美国还需要加强防控,以减少疫情带来的损失。研究结果证实了在COVID-19疫情防控中,采取减少集会、避免接触、集中收治等降低人群接触率措施的重要性,以期为后续疫情防控提供参考。

The data of confirmed cases,death cases and cured cases of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in seven epidemic seriously affected countries(Italy,South Korea,the United Kingdom,the United States,France,Spain,Germany)were obtained from the System Science and Engineering Center at Johns Hopkins University.Data were collected between March 4,2020 and April 4,2020.Traditional SIR model was used and improved by adding a new parameter to characterize the infection coefficient changes over time,and regression analysis was introduced to estimate the parameters.Based on the improved SIR model,the development of COVID-19 in 7 countries were simulated and predicted,and the effects of contact rate control measures of different countries on epidemic development were analyzed.Results showed that the improved SIR model was reliable for analyzing the epidemic trend of COVID-19.Apart from the United Kingdom and the United States,the other five countries have had their pandemic under initial control,while the United Kingdom and the United States need to do more to reduce the pandemic damage.Our finding confirmed the importance of reducing population contact rate in COVID-19 prevention and control,such as reducing assembly,avoiding contact and centralized admission,so as to provide reference for the subsequent epidemic prevention and control.