增加值贸易视角下中国工业制造业出口复杂度的国际比较及其演进的动力机制

International Comparisons of Export Sophistication of China’s Industrial Manufacturing Industry and Its Dynamic Mechanism of Evolution from the Perspective of Value-Added Trade

面对贸易摩擦频发的世界经济形势,中国制造如何改变大而不强的境地已经成为热议的话题之一。利用1995-2011年WIOD数据基于WWZ(2015)方法测算的增加值贸易数据,深入分析中国工业制造业出口复杂度及其演变的动力机制。研究发现:中国工业制造业整体以及除纺织原料及纺织制品等几个传统部门以外其他部门的出口复杂度水平与世界发达经济体之间的差距在不断扩大,排名也比较靠后;中国工业制造业出口复杂度演进的动力机制并未发生变化,出口贸易仍是其主要动力;经济增长对中国工业制造业出口复杂度的推动作用在缓慢增强,但技术因素对中国工业制造业出口复杂度的促进作用在缓慢减弱;服务贸易对中国工业制造业出口复杂度提升存在明显的抑制作用,并呈现逐渐增强的趋势。

Under the situation of frequent trade frictions in the world economy,it has become a hot topic as to how to change the big-but-not-strong situation of China’s manufacturing industry.Based on the WIOD data from 1995 to 2011 and the value-added trade data measured by WWZ(2015)method,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the export sophistication of China’s industrial manufacturing industry and the dynamic mechanism of its evolution.The study finds that the gap of the export sophistication between China’s industrial manufacturing industry as a whole and other sectors except textile raw materials and textile products and the developed economies in the world is widening and the ranking is relatively low.The dynamic mechanism of the evolution of export sophistication of China’s industrial manufacturing industry has not changed,in other words,export trade is still the main driving force.The promotion of economic growth to the export sophistication of China’s industrial manufacturing industry is enhancing,while that of the technical factors is slowly weakening.Service trade has a significant restraint on the increase of the export sophistication of China’s industrial manufacturing industry,which also shows a gradual increase in the trend.