中国碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响研究

Analysis on the impact of China’s carbon prices on the trade competitiveness of covered industries

总量控制下的碳市场在减少温室气体排放的同时,会增加企业的碳排放成本,进而可能降低企业的贸易竞争力。本文选择全国碳市场覆盖的6个能源密集型和贸易暴露型行业,以行业贸易竞争力指数、行业出口值和出口竞争力指数作为贸易竞争力的衡量指标,研究了碳价格对它们贸易竞争力的影响。由于缺乏全国碳价格数据,本文选用能源成本作为碳价格的代理变量,先研究能源成本对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响,通过碳价格向能源成本的映射关系,再研究碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响。首先,本文设定(对数)线性模型,研究了行业能源成本对行业贸易竞争力的影响。结果显示,行业能源成本每提升100元,行业贸易竞争力指数约下降0.0136;行业能源成本每提升100%,行业出口值和行业出口竞争力指数分别下降约22.97%和12.26%。然后,本文研究了行业能源消费和二氧化碳排放之间的关系,建立碳价格向行业能源成本的映射。由于短期内行业能源消费结构比较稳定,每消费1单位能源,行业排放二氧化碳的量就相对固定,但又因行业间的能源结构存在差异,相同的碳价格映射到各行业的能源成本也就不同。之后,本文构建存在全国碳价格的反事实情景,通过映射关系研究了不同水平碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的边际影响和累积影响。结果显示,碳价格对覆盖行业的贸易竞争力的边际影响递减。由于行业能源成本、映射系数及出口规模的不同,碳价格对覆盖行业出口值的影响规模存在一定的差异。最后,本文根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。

The reduction of GHG emissions under the cap-and-trade system would increase enterprises’costs of carbon emissions and decrease their trade competitiveness.This article selected six energy-intensive and trade exposure industries in China’s carbon market and studied the impact of carbon prices on their trade competitiveness with measurement indexes such as industry trade competitiveness,export value and export competitiveness.Due to the lack of carbon price data in China’s carbon market,this article used energy costs as the proxy variable of carbon prices to study their impact on the trade competitiveness of covered industries,and attempted to find how carbon prices affected the trade competitiveness of covered industries through the establishement of a mapping relationship between carbon prices and energy costs.A(logarithmic)linear model was built in the first place to study the impact of energy costs on trade competitiveness of these industries and the result showed that for every RMB 100 yuan increased in energy cost,the trade competitiveness index decreased by 0.0136,and for every 100%increase in energy cost,the export value and export competitiveness dropped by 22.97%and 12.26%respectively.Then,this study established a mapping relationship between carbon prices and energy costs according to the stable relationship between energy consumption and CO 2 emissions.After that,this article constructed a counterfactual scenario with China’s carbon prices,and studied the marginal and cumulative impacts of different levels of carbon prices on the competitiveness of covered industries through mapping relationships.The results showed that the marginal impact of carbon prices on the trade competitiveness of covered industries was diminishing.In addition,there were large differences in the export value of covered industries impacted by carbon prices because of the differences in energy cost,mapping coefficient and export size of these industries.In addition,this article provides relevant policy suggestions based on the results of the research.