草原生态补奖政策对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响——基于生计分化的调节效应分析

The impact of grassland ecological compensation policy on the livestock breeding scale of farmers and herders:based on the moderating role of livelihood diversification

实现对牲畜养殖规模的有效管控是草原生态补奖政策成败的关键。在农牧民生计分化日益加深的背景下,探讨草原生态补奖政策与生计分化对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响,对于完善草原生态补奖政策,实现草原生态保护与农牧民生计转换的有机结合具有重要的现实意义。本文阐释了草原生态补奖政策影响农牧民牲畜养殖规模的机理,并引入生计分化变量,基于实地调研获取的317份农牧交错区农牧民微观数据,运用最小二乘回归和分位数回归实证分析了草原生态补奖政策对农牧民牲畜养殖规模的影响以及生计分化在草原生态补奖政策影响农牧民牲畜养殖规模中的调节效应。研究结果表明:①补奖金额与牲畜养殖规模之间存在稳健的“倒U型”关系,表明补奖政策在短期内对牲畜数量的增加具有积极的促进作用,但随着补奖金额的增加,促进作用将逐渐减弱,最终趋于抑制。②根据非农牧收入占比和生计对牧业生产依赖程度的差异可将农牧民分为牧业为主型、农业为主型、均衡型、高兼型和深兼型五种类型农牧民。③农牧民生计分化对牲畜养殖规模的扩大具有抑制作用,且在草原生态补奖政策与牲畜养殖规模二者关系中具有调节作用。即在“倒U型”曲线的左侧,生计分化能够弱化草原生态补奖政策对牲畜养殖规模扩大的促进作用;在“倒U型”曲线的右侧,生计分化能够促使补奖金额对牲畜养殖规模的负向影响趋于放缓,有助于避免因补奖金额的增加引致牲畜养殖数量的锐减。根据以上结论,建议政府应进一步提高补奖标准以增强补奖弥补损失的有效性,重视发挥农牧民生计分化在牲畜养殖规模调控中的作用。

The effective control of livestock breeding scale is the key to the successful implementation of the grassland ecological compensation policy issued by the Chinese goverment.As the livelihood diversification of farmers and herders intensifies,exploring the impact of the grassland ecological compensation policy and livelihood diversification on livestock breeding scale has practical significance for the improvement of the grassland ecological compensation policy and the realization of the organic combination of grassland ecological protection and the livelihood conversion of farmers and herders.Based on the 317 samples of microdata of farmers and herders in an agropastoral ecotone obtained from field research,this article explores the impact of the grassland ecological compensation policy on the livestock breeding scale of farmers and herders and examines the moderating role of livelihood diversification with the method of leastsquares regression and quantile regression.The findings are as follows:①There is a sound inverted ushaped relationship between the compensation amount and livestock breeding number,indicating that the compensation policy has a positive promoting effect on the increase of livestock breeding number in the short term.However,with the increase of compensation amount,the livestock breeding scale tends to shrink.②According to the differences in the proportion of nonagricultural and pastoral income and the degree of livelihood dependence on livestock production,five types of farmers and herders are identified:livestockbased,agriculturebased,balanced,highly multiple occupations and deeply multiple occupations.③The livelihood diversification of farmers and herders has a negative impact on the expansion of livestock breeding scale,and it also has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between the grassland compensation policy and livestock breeding scale.That is to say,on the left side of the inverted ushaped curve,with the increase of farmers and herders\parttime employment,the promotion effect of grassland ecological compensation policy on the expansion of livestock breeding scale gradually weakens;to the right of the inverted ushaped curve,livelihood diversification tends to help to slow down the negative effect of compensation policy on livestock breeding scale,and help to avoid the sharp decline of livestock breeding scale caused by the increase of compensation amount.Based on the above conclusion,it is suggested that the government should further improve the compensation standard so that the compensation could effectively cover the farmers and herders\losses and should attach importance to the role of livelihood diversification in the regulation of livestock breeding scale.