人工智能革命背景下的大国博弈--以全球价值链的结构变化为分析视角

The Game between Great Powers under the Background of Artificial Intelligence Revolution:From the Perspective of Structural Changes in Global Value Chain

第三次产业革命与全球化瓦解了工业化时代民族国家的国内全产业链模式,推动了全球价值链的形成与国际分工合作增加,同时在国际政治层面首次出现"国家全球价值链能力"问题,进而影响到传统国际权力的结构性演变。人工智能技术发展与大国技术竞争,将对现有已经出现拐点变化的全球价值链产生颠覆性影响,人工智能环境下"主导等级企业"价值链模式的出现将重塑未来的全球价值链。而人工智能作为国家间博弈的决定性力量不仅嵌入于大国博弈竞争过程,同时还将引发全球价值链重塑风险,其竞争结果可能带来部分国家"超越式"发展而改变当下的国际关系,同时也会对民族国家既有的国际权力产生重大的影响。

The Third Industrial Revolution and the globalization process not only disintegrate the domestic industrial chain model of nation-states in the industrialization era and impel the formation of global value chain and intensified cooperation in international division of labor,but also give rise to an issue of"Global Value Chain Capability of a Country"on the dimension of international politics,thereby contributing to the structural evolution of traditional international power.The development of artificial intelligence technology and the technological competition among great powers will have a disruptive effect on the existing global value chain which is at a turning points.In the context of artificial intelligence,the emergence of"Dominant Enterprise"Value Chain Model will reshape the future global value chain.As a decisive force in the game between countries,artificial intelligence will not only be involved into the game and competition between great powers,but also lead to the risk of reshaping global value chain.The results of such competition may agitate some countries to launch"transcendental"development,which will not only reverse the current international relations,but also exert significant impacts on the existing international power of the nationstates.