逆周期财政政策能够控制政府债务风险吗?--理论变迁与经验数据分析

Can Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Control Government Debt Risk?--Theoretical Changes and Empirical Data Analysis

文章基于经济理论变迁,梳理了近代以来西方预算平衡与政府债务理论变迁的主要趋势,探讨了古典经济学年度预算平衡理论与凯恩斯财政革命后的周期预算平衡理论,及其对政府债务风险管理的影响。在此基础上,文章使用跨国面板数据实证分析了发展中国家财政周期选择对政府债务风险的影响,研究发现采取逆周期财政政策的国家能够更好地约束债务风险,该实证结果在不同债务警戒标准下均保持稳健。当前,为了有效约束财政风险,我国应避免进入顺周期财政陷阱,建立可控债务风险的逆周期财政调控机制。

Based on theoretical changes,this paper sorts out the main trends of western budget balance and government debt theory,discusses classical economics theory of annual budget balance and cyclical budget balance theory after Keynesian financial revolution,and analyzes their influences on government debt risk management. This paper uses international panel data to analyze the impact of fiscal cycle on government debt risk in developing countries. The study finds that countries adopting countercyclical fiscal policies can control government debt risk effectively. The empirical results are stable under different debt risk standards. Now China should avoid procyclical fiscal policy trap and establish a countercyclical fiscal mechanism to control government debt risks.