基于模糊Bow-tie模型的深水钻井平台井喷溢油风险评价

Oil Spill Risk Assessment for Blowout of Deepwater Drilling Platform Based on Fuzzy Bow-tie Model

针对目前深水钻井平台作业缺少有效定量评估井喷溢油风险的情况,引入模糊Bow-tie模型对深水钻井平台井喷溢油风险进行评价。评价过程中基于故障树方法分析深水钻井发生井喷的原因,采用事件树方法分析井喷溢油导致的后果,利用模糊集理论和专家评价相结合的方法计算得到井喷溢油概率和溢油后果风险值。通过对我国南海某深水钻井平台井喷溢油进行风险评估,结果显示,该平台井喷溢油概率为9.33×10^-5,一旦发生井喷溢油,发生火灾+污染的概率相对较高,为6.96×10^-5。基于以上风险评估结果,提出井喷溢油风险防控措施,为深水钻井平台溢油应急管理提供技术支持。

In view of the lack of effective quantitative assessment of blowout oil spill risk in deepwater drilling platform operation,the fuzzy bow-tie model was introduced to evaluate the well blowout risk.In the process of assessment,the causes of blowout were analyzed based on the fault tree method,and the consequences caused of blowout were analyzed by the event tree method.The probability and consequences of blowout oil spill were calculated by the combination of fuzzy set theory and expert evaluation.Through the oil spill risk assessment of a deep-water drilling platform in the South China sea,the results showed that the probability of blowout is 9.33×10^-5.There is a higher probability 6.96×10^-5 of both fire and pollution once the oil spill accident occur.Based on the risk analysis,the prevention and control measures of blowout oil spill risk were put forward,which can provide technical support for the oil spill emergency management of deep-water drilling platforms.