美对菲安保承诺的三重含义探析

Three Implications of US Security Commitment to Philippines

2019年3月1日,美国国务卿蓬佩奥访问菲律宾,单方面重申了《美菲共同防御条约》适用于南海争端,意味着美国重新审视了美菲同盟关系,也可以说是美国摒弃了对南海争端持“回避”立场到积极参与干涉立场的转变。自杜特尔特上台以来,菲律宾积极扭转对华态度,使得美国在南海问题上即将失去了一个有力制衡中国的抓手。鉴于此,美对菲安保承诺具有三重含义:一是对中国在南海问题上“刺激性试探”;二是搅乱中菲良性互动南海政策及减缓《南海行为准则》的实施;三是展示美国对同盟国安全保护的意志。该条约是否会成为现实,最关键的因素是菲律宾的态度,但此举搅乱南海的承诺不得不使中国以审慎的态度给予关注。

On March 1,2019,US Secretary of State Pompeo visited the Philippines to unilaterally reiterate the applicability of the US-Philippine Joint Defense Treaty to the South China Sea dispute,which means that the United States has re-examined the US-Philippine alliance,or that the United States has abandoned its position of"avoiding"the South China Sea dispute to actively participate in the intervention.In view of this,the US-Philippines Security Commitment has three meanings:1,it is a"stimulating test"to China on the South China Sea issue.2,disrupting the benign interaction between China and Philippines in the South China Sea policy and slowing down the implementation of the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.3,it demonstrates the will of the United States to protect the security of the Allies.Whether the treaty will become a reality or not depends mostly on the attitude of the Philippines;however,the promise of disrupting the South China Sea has forced China to pay attention with a prudent attitude.