国民经济动员链中断事件理论框架研究

Research on the Theoretical Framework of Disruption of National Economy Mobilization Chain

【目的/意义】针对国民经济动员链的具体特征,从概念、成因、演化机理和响应策略等方面构建了动员链中断事件理论框架。【设计/方法】立足于中断事件的影响阶段,提出了需求信息中断、供应中断、运输中断和组织中断四种中断类型;结合多米诺骨牌理论和系统安全理论,提出了静态单因素和动态多因素致因模式;【结论/发现】依托生命周期理论,将动员链中断事件分为酝酿期、发生期、消退期;最后,从节点、路径、物资量和组织视角,分析了动员链中断事件的响应策略,为进一步研究更为复杂的国民经济动员链奠定了基础。

[Purpose/Significance]According to the characteristics of the national economy mobilization chain,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of mobilization chain disruptions from the aspects of concept,cause,evolution mechanism and reaction mechanism.[Design/Methodology]Based on the impact stage of the disruption event,four types of disruption such as demand information disruption,supply disruption,transportation disruption and organizational disruption are proposed.Combining domino theory and system safety theory,static single factor and dynamic multi-factor causation models are proposed.[Findings/Conclusion]Based on the theory of evolution cycle,mobilization chain disruptions can be divided into three stages:incubation period,occurrence period and extinction period.Finally,from the perspective of node,path,material quantity and organization,the reaction mechanism of the mobilization chain responding to the disruptions were analyzed,which lays a foundation for further study of the more complex national economic mobilization chain.