山西能源消费与经济增长的灰色关联度分析——基于能源结构约束的视角

Grey Relevancy Analysis on Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Shanxi:From perspective of energy structure constraint

根据2000-2016年山西省煤炭、汽油、天然气、电力等常规能源与生产总值的有关统计数据,应用灰色关联分析方法,对山西省地区生产总值与常规能源消费之间的关联程度进行了量化.结果显示与生产总值关联度从大到小依次为煤炭(0.69)、电力(0.67)、汽油(0.59)、天然气(0.58),煤炭、以煤炭支撑的电力占据山西省能源消费量的最大比重,这种严重依赖煤炭的能源消费结构抑制了山西省低碳经济发展战略目标的实现.

According to the data of 2000-2016 of Shanxi province,using the theory of grey correlation degree,this paper measures the correlation extent between conventional energy such as coal,gasoline,electricity,natural gas,and economic growth.The results show that as for correlation degree with economic growth,coal is largest(0.69),followed by electricity(0.67),gasoline(0.59),natural gas(0.58)In other words,coal consumption is still the main body of Shanxi’s energy consumption,which means that the principal contradiction in Shanxi’s energy utilization is not from the total amount of energy,but from the energy structure constraint.