基于贝叶斯网络的飞行不安全事件风险评估研究

Research on Flight unsafe incidents Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Network

飞行不安全事件会导致飞行事故和飞行事故症候,为了保障飞行安全,对飞行不安全事件的风险因素进行风险评估,对风险大的因素进行有效的管理,可以降低飞行不安全事件的发生.首先从飞行不安全事件的责任类别角度,总结了飞行不安全事件的32个风险因素,归属9类责任,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的飞行不安全事件风险评估模型;其次根据2011年1到11月的民用航空不安全事件的统计结果,利用Microsoft Excel软件和编写VB语言程序通过输入风险因素的先验概率,计算出目标事件即飞行不安全事件发生的概率和风险因素的重要性指标值,最后利用贝叶斯网络模型对飞行不安全事件的风险因素进行评价,得出影响较大的风险因素有6个,分别为爆胎/轮胎脱层/扎破、系统失效、通信中断、外来物击伤、雷击、危险接近/飞行冲突.针对影响较大的风险因素,应增强机务部门对航空器轮胎、机载设备系统、通信系统的检修质量、提高对天气观测和预报的准确度、加强机组培训、优化空管指挥方案.

Flight unsafe incidents can lead to flight accidents and flight accident symptoms.In order to ensure flight safety,risk factors of flight unsafe incidents are assessed and risk factors are effectively managed,which can reduce the occurrence of flight unsafe incidents.Firstly,from the point of view of responsibility categories of flight unsafe events,32 risk factors of flight unsafe events are summarized,which belong to 9 categories of responsibility,A risk assessment model of flight unsafe events based on Bayesian network is established.Secondly,according to the statistical results of civil aviation insecurity incidents from January to November 2011,by entering the prior probability of risk factors,the probability of target event that is aviation insecurity incident and the importance index of each risk factors are calculated,using Microsoft Excel software and programming VB language.Lastly by using the Bayesian network model to evaluate the risk of Flight unsafe incidents,it is concluded that there are six risk factors that have significant impacts on dispatch:tire burst/tire delamination/breakage,system failure,communication interrupted,foreign object wound,lightning strike,dangerous approach/flight conflicts.For risk factors with greater impact,the quality of maintenance of aircraft tires,airborne equipment systems,and communication systems should be enhanced,the accuracy of weather observation and forecast should be improved,crew training should be strengthened,and air traffic control programs should be optimized.