对江苏农村居民消费增长和投向的实证分析

Positivist Analysis of Jiangsu Rural Residents' Consumption Growth and Turn

从江苏农村居民消费增长和投向的研究表明 :1989— 2 0 0 0年 ,江苏农村居民的消费增长 (Δ C)呈波浪式推进 ,1991年、1994年、1996年出现了三次增长峰值 ,1999年、2 0 0 0年的消费倾向增长 ,而储蓄倾向下降。通过边际消费倾向 (MPC)和边际储蓄倾向 (MPS)的测定 ,发现在收入增长的构成中 ,消费与储蓄比为 5 .6∶ 4 .4 ,用于消费的比例下降 ,而用于储蓄的比例上升 ,1996— 1999年 ,边际消费倾向大幅下降 ,边际储蓄倾向极度增长 ,消费、储蓄的均衡格局被打破。通过对消费倾向增长年段中相邻年份的消费支出项目的比较 ,所得的差距系数显示了长期消费增长的投向和走势 ,即农村居民消费结构和变动情况。

The thesis primarily discusses Jiangsu rural residents' consumption growth and turn.It's shown by the study:From 1989 to 2000 the Consumption growth of that consumption growth of Jiangsu rural residents advanced wave upon wave.There appeared three maximums of consumption growth in 1991,1994,1996 respectively.The MPC(Marginal Propensity to Consume)of 1999,2000 increased,but MPS(Marginal Propensity to Save)declined.Through determination of the MPC and the MPS,we've found:in the constitution of income growth,5.6 tenth has been used in consumption while 4.4 tenth in save,used for the comparison of the consumption in the descent,but used for the comparison that save in the rising,1996-1999,the MPC began to be decline substantially while the MPC increased extremely.So the equilibrium between consumption and save was broken.Besides we've got the gap coefficient through comparing the adjacent year Item of Consumption Expenditures.The numbers show the trend and turn of longterm consumption growth has been from Food to Other Commodities and Service.On this basis we also proffer the countermeasure of study to the consumption turn of Jiangsu rural area.