长三角一体化经济收敛性及其影响因素的空间计量分析--基于空间杜宾面板模型的实证研究

The Spatial Empirical Analysis of the Economic Convergence in the Integration of the Yangtze River Delta--Empirical Research Based on Spatial Durbin Panel Model

基于2008-2017年长三角一体化26个城市面板数据,利用三种类型空间权重矩阵建立杜宾空间面板模型,进行长三角一体化经济空间收敛性检验及其影响因素分析。结果显示:长三角一体化城市经济增长具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,且存在明显的σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,其中,在条件β收敛中,物质资本、人力资本、市场化对长三角一体化收敛性有显著推动作用。在俱乐部收敛中,江苏省存在俱乐部收敛,但空间关联不强;浙江省不存在俱乐部收敛,且差距有扩大趋势;安徽省存在俱乐部收敛,但是收敛速度较低。物质资本、教育促减本地区经济增长,但促增周边地区经济增长;劳动力、科技均促增本地区和周边地区经济增长;人力资本、产业结构促增本地区经济增长,但对周边地区经济增长不很明显;政府支持促增本地区经济增长,但促减周边地区经济增长。

Based on the panel data of 26 cities in the Integration of the Yangtze River Delta from the year 2008 to2017,and by using three types of spatial weight matrix,the dubin spatial panel model was established in this paper to test the economy spatial convergence of the Yangtze River Delta Integration and analyze its economic influencing factors.The results show that the spatial spillover effect of the cities in the Integrated of Yangtze River Delta is significant,and the δ-convergence and the absolute β-convergence is obvious. In the conditional β-convergence,physical capital,human capital and marketization significantly promote the convergence of the Integration of the Yangtze River Delta. In terms of Club-Convergence,there is Club-Convergence in Jiangsu province,but the spatial correlation is not strong.There is no Club-Convergence in Zhejiang province,moreover the gap of the cities in Zhejiang province is expanding.Club-Convergence also exists in Anhui province,but the convergence speed is low. At the same time,this paper also makes an empirical analysis to the factors influencing of economic growth about the cities in the Integrated of Yangtze River Delta. The results show that: material capital and education have negative effects on the regional economic growth,but positive effects on the economic growth of the surrounding areas. Labor force,science and technology play a positive role in the economic growth of the region and sorrounding areas;Human capital and industrial structure play a positive role in regional economic growth,but are not obvious to the surrounding areas. The government support is positive for the economic growth of the region,but negative for the economic growth of surrounding areas.