贸易便利化与中国出口贸易--基于半参数GWR模型的空间计量分析

Trade Facilitationwith China’s Export Trade--Spatial Econometric Analysis Basedon Semi-Parametric GWR Model

使用PCA方法测算一带一路沿线65国2012至2018年贸易便利化水平,从时间和空间两个维度对65国贸易便利化水平进行空间统计分析。使用贝叶斯结构方程检验贸易便利化指标体系的稳健性,采用半参数GWR模型对贸易便利化如何影响中国出口贸易进行实证检验。结果显示:指标体系具备较好的信度效度,65国贸易便利化水平呈现波动上升趋势,但基础设施建设、商务信息技术、海关管理、金融服务、法制规范五个维度的得分差异较大,并且对我国出口贸易的弹性存在异质影响,2012年商务信息技术、法制规范在1%置信水平下不显著,基础设施的弹性比较稳定,海关管理、金融服务的弹性增长强劲,2016年商务信息技术和法制规范转变为统计显著,2018年回归弹性最大是法制规范和商务信息技术。在逐步加入控制变量后结果依旧显著,上海合作组织、东盟、经济合作发展组织变量回归系数依次为1. 205、0. 856、0. 531。最后,从宏观层面和企业层面提出政策建议,助力早日实现贸易强国。

PCA method was used to calculate the trade facilitation level of 65 countries from 2012 to 2018,and spatial statistical analysis was conducted on the trade facilitation level of 65 countries from two dimensions of time and space. The robustness of the trade facilitation measurement system is measured by using the bayesian SEM,and the semi-parametric GWR model is used to empirically test how the uncertainty of trade facilitation affects China’s export trade. Index system has good reliability,65 countries trade facilitation level fluctuated upward trend,but the infrastructure construction,business management,financial services,information technology,the customs law norms of five dimension score difference is bigger,and the impact on China’s export trade elasticity exists heterogeneity,business information technology,legal norms in 2012 was not significant under 1% confidence level,the elasticity of the infrastructure is stable,the customs management flexibility strong growth,financial services,business information technology and legal norms in 2016 into a statistical significant,elasticity of return in 2018 is the biggest legal norms and business information technology. After gradually adding control variables,the results are still significant. The regression coefficients of the variables of the SCO,ASEAN and OECD are 1. 205,0. 856 and 0. 531 respectively. China’s active integration into the coordinated development of the world economy is conducive to the growth of export trade and the common development of the region.