贸易开放、制造业升级对金融开放的影响

Impact of Trade Openness,Transformation and Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry on Financial Openness

在全面深化改革开放的战略布局背景之下,本文重点研究贸易开放和制造业转型升级对金融开放的影响,为我国进一步制定相关贸易政策、产业政策和金融开放政策提供理论依据。通过对全球94个国家或地区的金融贸易数据进行实证研究,结果发现贸易的开放可以有效提高金融开放水平;制造业对金融开放的影响则与经济发展水平相关,低收入国家制造业出口的增加给金融市场带来冲击,高收入国家制造业的转型升级可以刺激金融市场开放。最后,本文进行了一系列稳健性检验,在经过区分经济危机事件影响、替换金融开放指标以及进行分位数回归之后,本文结论依旧成立。

Under the backgrounds where opening up is being comprehensively deepened,this paper focuses mainly on the effects of trade openness,the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry on financial openness. This way,it aims to lay theoretical foundation for further harmonious development between trade and financial openness. Panel data collected between 1990 and 2017 from 94 countries across the world were used in this paper to build models for empirical analysis. The research results suggest trade openness will steadily facilitate financial openness,which is independent of the influence of economic development level. However,the effects of manufacturing trade on financial openness are associated with economic development level. The growth in manufacturing export volumes in low-income countries will hinder financial openness while optimized trade structure of high-income countries will boost financial openness. Finally,a series of robustness tests were conducted. Conclusions drawn from the paper still proved to be reasonable even if a distinction was made among the effects of economic crisis events,financial openness index was replaced and quantile regression was conducted.