新型冠状病毒传播仿真组合模型

Simulation Composite Model for COVID-19 Propagation

文章提出了一个新型病毒传播仿真组合模型SISR-HHO有效模拟新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的传播过程,帮助公众研判疫情发展趋势。其中,SISR模型是SEIR模型的改进模型,它具有更好的灵活性,但参数也更多,这些参数一旦设置不当,SISR模型的仿真效果将大打折扣。为此,使用改进的哈里斯鹰优化算法对SISR模型的参数进行寻优。最后,通过实验对比了SISR-HHO模型与其他几种常用模型对COVID-19传播过程的仿真效果,结果显示建立的模型具有更好的仿真精度,更适合模拟COVID-19的传播过程。

This paper proposes the simulation composite model SISR-HHO for novel virus propagation so as to effectively simulate the transmission process of COVID-19 virus, and help the public study and identify the epidemic trend. In this paper,SISR model is an improved one of SEIR model, which has better flexibility, but also has more parameters. Once these parameters are not set properly, the simulation effect of SISR model will be greatly reduced. Therefore, the improved Harris Hawks optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of SISR model. Finally, the paper compares the simulation effect of SISR-HHO model with that of several other commonly used models on the propagation process of COVID-19 virus. The results show that the proposed model has better simulation accuracy and is more suitable to simulate the propagation process of COVID-19.