中国新冠肺炎疫情预测建模与理性评估

Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic Prediction Modeling and Rational Evaluation in China

文章针对当前各界关于疫情前景预测研究存在的局限性,结合中国政府对于新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎的疫情处置进展,以及医学界对于COVID-19研究的最新成果,通过建立科学的数学模型对中国(除湖北省和港澳台地区)30个省级行政区的疫情发展状况予以预测,对疫情的规模进行定量分析,对疫情原始基数和有效传播率进行科学和可靠的区间估算,从而对疫情发展状况作出切合实际且理性的判断,为疫情防控提供参考。

In view of the limitations of the current research on the prediction of the prospect of epidemic situation, this paper combines with the Chinese government’s progress in the outbreak management of novel coronavirus pneumonia and the latest research achievements on COVID-19 virus in the medical community to establish a scientific mathematical model, by use of which,the paper predicts the epidemic situation of 30 provincial administrative regions in China(except Hubei Province and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan), quantitatively analyzes the scale of the epidemic outbreak, and makes a scientific and reliable interval estimates on the original baseline and effective propagation rate of the outbreak. Thus the paper makes a realistic and rational judgment on the development of the epidemic, and provides reference for the prevention and control of the epidemic.