“一带一路”出口与中国制造业产能利用率

“Belt and Road”Exports and China’s Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

文章首先利用DSBM模型对2009-2016年中国29个省份的21个制造业行业的产能利用率进行了测度,然后运用随机效应面板Tobit模型,对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口与制造业产能利用率之间的关系进行了检验,得出以下结论:(1)中国制造业整体还未出现产能过剩情况,但是产能利用率在逐年下降,有出现产能过剩的趋势,部分细分行业存在产能过剩情况。东部地区制造业产能利用率最高,有产能不足的情况出现;中西部和东北部地区出现了产能过剩的情况。(2)对"一带一路"沿线国家出口能够提高制造业的产能利用率,对存在产能过剩的行业有一定的缓解作用。(3)投资比重与制造业产能利用率之间不存在显著的关系,劳动投入和外资占比与制造业产能利用率之间存在显著的正向关系,研发投入比重和国有占比与制造业产能利用率之间存在显著的负向关系。

This paper firstly uses DSBM model to measure the capacity utilization of 21 manufacturing industries in 29 provinces in China from 2009 to 2016. And then, the paper uses the random effect panel Tobit model to test the relationship between exports and manufacturing capacity utilization in countries along the "Belt and Road" route, from which conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) China’s manufacturing industry as a whole has not seen overcapacity, but the capacity utilization rate is declining year by year, and there appears a trend of overcapacity, with excess capacity in some of the industry segments;the eastern region has the highest utilization rate of manufacturing capacity, with insufficient capacity;there is excess capacity in the mid-west and northeast. (2) Exports to countries along the"Belt and Road"route can improve the capacity utilization of the manufacturing industry and have a certain mitigation effect on the industries with overcapacity. (3) There is no significant relationship between the proportion of investment and the utilization of manufacturing capacity;there is a significant positive relationship between labor input and the proportion of foreign investment, and the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity, while there is a significant negative relationship between the proportion of R&D investment and the proportion of state-owned enterprises, and the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity.