中美贸易摩擦下中欧贸易转移与承接研究

Sino-EU Trade Diversion and Undertaking Under Sino-US Trade Frictions

中美贸易摩擦存在长期性和反复性,欧盟作为最大发达经济体,转移与承接部分中美贸易份额,将在一定程度上缓解中国外贸压力。从总值贸易和增加值贸易维度,文章在理论层面进行中欧转移与承接中美贸易的可行性分析。研究发现,欧盟对于中国出口美国存在替代效应的产品主要包括通信设备、数据处理设备、电气机械设备、服装、鞋、配电设备、特殊工业设备、风电设备等,中国相关产业全球价值链地位较高,欧美处于较为下游地位且对华依赖较强,具备贸易替代的必要条件;欧盟对于中国进口美国存在替代效应的产品主要包括飞行器、乘用车、电子元器件、测量仪器、特殊工业设备、药物、汽车零部件、电诊断仪、医用设备、肉类(含猪肉)等,欧盟相关产业全球价值链参与度和国际分工地位更高,对美国产品替代性强且对华出口意愿更为积极。欧盟是中美贸易的重要替代市场,深化中欧经贸关系并对美形成触动有助于中国在贸易摩擦中争取主动。

Sino-US trade frictions are long-lasting and recurring.As the largest developed economy,the EU diverts and undertakes part of Sino-US trade share,which will alleviate China’s economic and trade pressure to some extent.From the perspectives of total value trade and value-added trade,this paper conducts a theoretical analysis of the feasibility that China and the EU divert and undertake Sino-US trade.The research shows that the EU’s products with the substitution effect on China’s exports to the United States mainly include communication equipment,data processing equipment,electrical machinery equipment,clothing,shoes,power distribution equipment,special industrial equipment,wind power equipment,etc.China’s related industries enjoy a relatively high position in the global value chain( GVC) while the EU and the United States are in a relatively downstream position and rely heavily on China.Therefore,there exists the necessary condition for trade substitution.The EU’s products with substitution effect on China’s imports from the United States mainly include aircraft,passenger cars,electronic components,measuring instruments,special industrial equipment,pharmaceuticals,auto parts,electrical diagnostic instruments,medical equipment,meat( including pork),etc.The EU’s related industries,which have a greater participation in GVC and a higher position in international division,have strong substitution for the products of the United States and are more active in exporting to China.Because the EU is the important substitution market for Sino-US trade,deepening Sino-EU economic and trade relationship will help China take the initiative in the trade frictions.