最终商品优惠性原产地规则与中间品贸易转移效应--以CAFTA原产地规则为例

Trade Diversion Effects of Intermediate Goods Caused by Preferential Rules of Origin of Final Goods: A Case of Rules of Origin in CAFTA

在价值链贸易模式下,原产地规则显著改变了中间品贸易流向。文章以投入产出联系为基础,研究了原产地规则的贸易转移效应。测算了最终商品的原产地规则对中间品施加的域外采购限制指数,通过贸易效应分解模型,提炼出中间品的进口转移效应,并估算了原产地规则对中间品进口转移效应的影响。实证结果表明,原产地规则的严格程度与转移效应存在倒U型关系,最终品的原产地规则能有效促进中间品贸易转移,但过于严格的规则却会降低转移效应。在2006年,原产地规则的贸易转移效应使中国从东盟进口中间品增长了约1.41%,占CAFTA引起中间品进口转移效应的26.59%,但各行业之间存在较大差异,自由贸易协定"红利"释放并不充分。因此,在协定谈判中还需根据行业特征,制定有针对性的原产地规则。

Under the value chain model,the rules of origin significantly change the trade flows of intermediate goods.Based on input-output linkage,this paper probes into the trade diversion effects of the rules of origin.It calculates the foreign procurement restriction index imposed by the rules of origin of final goods on intermediate goods,extracts the import diversion effects of intermediate goods through establishing the trade effect decomposition model,and estimates the impact of the rules of origin on the import diversion effects of intermediate goods.The empirical results turn out to be that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the strictness of the rules of origin and trade diversion effect.The rules of origin of final goods can effectively promote the diversion of intermediate goods trade,while overly strict rules will reduce the diversion effect.In 2006,trade diversion effects caused by the rules of origin increased China’s imports of intermediate goods from ASEAN by about 1.41%,accounting for 26.59% of the import diversion effects of intermediate goods caused by CAFTA.However,the increases vary among the industries and the"dividend"of free trade agreements is not fully released.Therefore,it is also necessary to set down the specific rules of origin according to the characteristics of the industries in the negotiation of the agreements.