南水北调西线一期工程效益分析

Benefit Analysis of Phase I Project of West Route of South-to-North Water Diversion

南水北调西线一期工程是支撑黄河流域及邻近地区经济社会可持续发展和生态系统良性维持的重要战略措施。根据初步研究成果,针对调水规模80亿m^3的水量配置方案,分析计算了南水北调西线一期工程对受水区带来的巨大效益及对调水区产生的主要影响。在充分考虑水量配置作用的基础上,采用直接市场法、分摊系数法、机会成本法、最优等效替代费用法等计算了西线一期工程对于受水区维持和改善区域生态环境的效益、向黄河干流河道内配置生态水量的效益、向重要城市和能源基地供水的效益及黄河干流梯级电站增发电效益;对于调水区,主要分析了对水资源开发利用的影响,以及对临近调水断面下游河段生态环境的影响。据初步分析估算,南水北调西线一期工程平均每年可产生直接经济效益约801亿元。

The Phase I Project of West Route of South-to-North Water Diversion plays a significant strategic role to support the sustainable economic and social development and the good maintenance of ecosystem in the Yellow River basin and regions around. Based on the preliminary research results and aiming at a water allocation plan in a scale of 8 billion m^3, the paper analyzed and calculated the significant benefits brought by the project to the target regions and the primary impact on the source regions. After full consideration of effect from water allocation, appropriate methods such as direct market, apportionment coefficient, opportunity cost and optimal equivalent substitution cost were accepted to calculate the benefits of the project to maintain and improve regional ecological environment in the target regions, to allocate ecological water to the main stream of the Yellow River, to supply water for major cities and energy bases and to increase energy outputs of cascade hydropower projects on the main stream of the Yellow River. For the source regions, the impacts on the development and utilization of water resources as well as the ecological environment downstream of the water transfer section were mainly analyzed. The preliminary calculation and analysis results show that the project can bring about a direct economic benefit around RMB 80.1 billion Yuan per year on average.