基于累积前景理论的物流方案选择方法

Logistics Scheme Selection Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

为了有效反映物流方案选择过程中决策者期望和行为的特征,提出基于累积前景理论和混合多属性决策理论的物流方案选择方法。该方法首先考虑决策者的心理行为因素,将决策者对物流方案中每一个属性的期望作为相应属性的参照点;其次,根据已设定的参照点,将具有清晰数、区间数和语言短语3种信息形式的决策矩阵转化为相对于参照点的益损决策矩阵;最后,考虑决策者对待收益和损失的不同风险态度,依据累积前景理论计算各个方案的综合前景值,进而根据各个物流方案的综合前景值确定其优先度。通过一个实例验证了本文方法的有效性和合理性。

To effectively reflect decision makers’aspirations and behaviors in the process of logistics scheme selection,an approach of logistics scheme selection based on the cumulative prospect theory and the multiple attribute decision making theory was proposed.First,psychological behavior factors of decision makers are considered,and the aspiration of decision makers with respect to each attribute was chosen as the corresponding reference.Next,decision matrixes with clear numbers,interval numbers,and linguistic assessment terms were transformed into the corresponding decision matrixes of gains or losses relative to the set references.Finally,the comprehensive prospect value of each scheme was calculated based on the cumulative prospect theory considering the different risk attitudes of decision makers to gains and losses,and a ranking of logistics scheme alternatives was determined based on the comprehensive prospect values obtained.An example was given to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the approach proposed.