二孩政策下深圳市房价影响因素分析——基于灰色关联度

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Housing Price in Shenzhen City——Based on Grey Correlation Degree

从经济、人口和供需三个方面选取影响深圳市房价的十项指标,基于深圳市1998年至2017年各指标的数据,采用灰色关联度模型分别分析了独生子女政策下1998至2011年以及二孩政策下2012年至2017年深圳市商品房价格与这十项指标的关联程度。分析结果表明:2012年至2017年对深圳市商品房价格影响最大的前三个因素依次为房地产住宅开发投资额、二孩率及GDP,对比未放开二孩政策时期的关联度排序,二孩率在二孩政策期间的影响作用更为明显。

This paper selects 10 indicators influencing Shenzhen housing prices from the aspects of economy,population,supply and demand.Based on the data of various indicators from 1998 to 2017 in Shenzhen,we use the Grey Correlation Model to respectively analyze the correlation between Shenzhen housing prices and these 10 factors from 2012 to 2017 under the two-child policy and from 1998 to 2011 under the one-child policy.The result shows that the top three indicators that have the greatest impact on the housing prices in Shenzhen from 2012 to 2017 are the real estate residential development investment,the two-child rate and GDP.Compared with the correlation ranking of the one-child policy period,the influence of the two-child rate of the two-child policy period is marked.