快速风险评估方法在城市防控新冠肺炎疫情工作的探索与运用--以温州市为例

Exploration and application of rapid risk assessment method in prevention and control of COVID-19 in urban areas:a case study based on data of Wenzhou

目的分析浙江省温州市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情各个阶段的风险,探索建立城区COVID-19疫情变化的快速风险评估方法,为采取有效应对策略提供依据。方法采集2020年1月21日至2020年2月16日24时国家及各地卫生健康委员会官方网站公布的COVID-19病例数据,采用疫情风险指数(RI)评估温州市不同时期COVID-19疫情风险。结果温州市累计报告COVID-19确诊病例503例,其中重症病例22例,无死亡病例。病例年龄2~93岁,平均(47.69±14.30)岁。男性占49.30%,女性占44.33%。乐清市、瑞安市、鹿城区、永嘉县4个区县占全市病例的72.37%。该期间温州市COVID-19发病率为6.07/10万,与宁波(2.59/10万,156/7 741 016)、杭州(2.17/10万,168/7 741 016)、台州市(2.41/10万,146/6 053 971)发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.01),高于全省发病率(2.34/10万,1 171/49 998 360,P<0.01)。RI评估结果显示温州市早期疫情风险为19分,中期为19分,近期为15分,早期和中期均为高风险,近期降为较高风险。结论快速风险评估方法可快速、有效评估城区各阶段疫情风险,易于基层防控人员掌握,适用于各级政府快速评估疫情风险进行决策。

Objective To analyze the risk of COVID-19 epidemic at various stages in Wenzhou City,Zhejiang Province and explore the establishment of rapid risk assessment method for changes in the COVID-19 epidemic situation in urban areas,so as to provide evidence for effective response strategies. Methods Data of COVID-19 cases were collected from official websites of the national and local health committees published from January 21,2020 to February 16,2020. The risk of COVID-19 in Wenzhou in different periods was assessed using the outbreak risk index(RI).Results A total of 503 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in Wenzhou City,including 22 severe cases,and no deaths. The cases were aged from 2 to 93 years,with an average age of(47.69 ± 14.30)years. Males accounted for 49.30% and females accounted for 44.33%. Cases in four districts/counties/cities of Yueqing,Ruian,Lucheng,and Yongjia accounted for 72.37% of the total ones. During this period,the incidence rate of COVID-19 was 6.07/100 000 in Wenzhou,with statistically significant difference compared with Ningbo(2.59/100 000;156/7 741 016),Hangzhou(2.17/100 000;168/7 741 016),and Taizhou(2.41/100 000;146/6 053 971)(P<0.01),and higher than that of the whole province(2.34/100 000,1 171/49 998 360,P<0.01). The RI assessment showed that epidemic RIs were 19 points at the early stage,19 at the mid stage,and 15 at the late stage. Both the early and mid stages were high-risk,and the risk was reduced to medium-high level at the late stage. Conclusion The rapid risk assessment method can be used to assess the epidemic risk in urban areas quickly and effectively,easy to be mastered by grass-roots prevention and control personnel,and suitable for governments at all levels to quickly assess the epidemic risk for decision-making.