东盟六国海洋经济与宏观经济关系实证研究

Empirical Study of the Relationship Between Marine Economy and Macroeconomic Growth in ASEAN-6

基于海洋经济指数的构建和测定,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,对东盟六国整体和国别海洋经济与宏观经济关系进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)东盟六国的海洋经济指数与宏观经济指数存在双向因果关系。(2)印尼则是存在从宏观经济指数到海洋经济指数的双向因果关系。(3)马来西亚和菲律宾具有从宏观经济指数到海洋经济指数单向因果关系。(4)泰国和越南均具有从海洋经济指数到宏观经济指数的单向因果关系。(5)新加坡则在宏观经济增长指数和海洋经济指数之间不存在任何因果关系。最后,根据研究结果给出政策建议。

Based on the construction and determination of Marine economy index, the co-integration test and granger causality test are used to test the overall and national Marine economy and macro-economic relations of the six asean countries.The results show that:(1)there is a two-way causal relationship between Marine economic index and macro-economic index of six asean countries;(2)in Indonesia, there is a two-way causal relationship from macroeconomic index to Marine economic index;(3)Malaysia and the Philippines have one-way causal relationship from macroeconomic index to Marine economic index;(4)both Thailand and Vietnam have one-way causal relationship from Marine economic index to macroeconomic index;(5)there is no causal relationship between the macroeconomic growth index and the Marine economy index in Singapore.Finally, policies are suggested based on the above research results.