基于粗糙集和云模型的隧道施工过程动态风险评估

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Tunnel Construction Process Based on Rough Set and Cloud Model

综合考虑隧道工程的实际地质情况及施工量测体系,选取净空收敛、拱顶沉降、围岩压力、岩石单轴抗压强度和地下水等5个因素作为隧道施工过程中动态风险评价指标。采用粗糙集理论确定指标权重,基于云模型基本原理,建立了隧道新奥法施工过程动态风险评估模型。该模型可以将施工量测数据量化为动态指标,并随隧道的开挖进行动态风险评估。工程应用结果表明,该模型的评价结果与实际开挖情况相吻合,对后期的隧道施工起到了较好的指导作用。

Considering the actual geological conditions of tunnel engineering and the construction measurement system,five factors are selected as the indicators for dynamic risk assessment of tunnel construction process,including headspace convergence,vault settlement,surrounding rock pressure,rock uniaxial compressive strength and groundwater.The rough set theory is used to determine the weight of each index,a dynamic risk assessment model for the construction of the NATM tunnel is established based on the cloud model,which can quantify the data of the construction measurement into dynamic indicators,and dynamically evaluate the risk of the tunnel as the tunnel is excavated.The application results show that the method is consistent with the actual excavation and plays a good guiding role for the later tunnel construction.