央行数字货币的宏观经济与金融效应研究

Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Central Bank Digital Currency

通过建立表征央行数字货币影响经济主要机制的央行数字货币转化程度指数,并合理引入利率走廊机制,构建DSGE模型进行动态模拟分析,研究央行数字货币的若干重要宏观经济与金融效应,结果表明:央行数字货币的发行不会给宏观经济带来较大波动,但会对央行数字货币等若干重要金融变量产生较明显影响并且会使货币乘数不确定性增加;央行数字货币的利率可作为一种新型货币政策工具,其与常备借贷便利可形成利率走廊机制,更有效地调节经济;在利率走廊机制下,受到负向生产技术冲击后,商业银行存款有持续下降的趋势。因此,建议进一步加快利率市场化进程,谨慎调节利率走廊宽度,加强对商业银行的监管,多以SLF和MLF等能直接提高银行体系流动性的工具应对生产技术等负向冲击;同时,商业银行应随活期存款向央行数字货币转化程度的提高,积极采取措施吸收存款以提高竞争力。

This study established a central bank digital currency conversion index that erizes the main mechanism of the influence of such currency on the economy and reasonably introducing the interest rate corridor system.A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model for dynamic simulation analysis was constructed to investigate several important macroeconomic and financial effects of central bank digital currency.The results revealed that the issuance of such currency would not lead to high volatility in the macroeconomy but would have a significant impact on several important financial variables,such as central bank digital currency and increase the uncertainty of the money multiplier.The interest rate of central bank digital currency could be used as a new type of monetary policy tool as both this currency and standing lending facility(SLF)could form an interest rate corridor mechanism to regulate the economy in a more effective manner.Under the aforementioned mechanism,the deposits of commercial banks have also dropped significantly after the impact of negative production technology.This study therefore offers several suggestions,including further accelerating the process of interest rate marketization,carefully adjusting the width of the interest rate corridor,enhancing the supervision of commercial banks,and increasing the use of tools such as SLF and medium-term lending facility(MLF),which can directly improve the liquidity of the banking system to cope with negative impacts such as production technology.At the same time,commercial banks should actively take measures to absorb deposits to increase their competitiveness as the conversion of demand deposits to central bank digital currency increases.