中国对外直接投资:亚投行的作用及对“一带一路”的促进

China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment:The Role of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and How It Promotes the “One Belt,One Road” Initiative

通过对亚投行运营前后中国对外直接投资(OFDI)演进路径的变化状况及其动因的考察发现,亚投行运营同步于OFDI持续增长推动下的中国国际直接投资发展路径快速转型,促进了中国对亚洲及"一带一路"沿线国的投资,加快了中国OFDI行业结构转型升级步伐。演进机理分析发现,寻求市场是中国OFDI演进的首要动机类驱动力,东道国税费负担主要考虑的是环境类因素,对亚洲及"一带一路"国家基础设施的敏感性正在增强。因此,进入业务扩张阶段后亚投行应提高放款速度和规模,扩大贷款范围,改进贷款结构;中国OFDI应基于亚投行贷款见效状况调整区位及行业布局,并保持规模上的持续快速增长态势,助推经济战略转型和"一带一路"建设。

By examining the changes in the evolution path of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) before and after the operation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and its motivations,this study found that the operation of AIIB coincided with the rapid transformation of the development path of China’s international direct investment driven by continuous OFDI growth.Such growth has promoted China’s investments in Asia and countries along the path of the "One Belt,One Road"(OBOR)initiative and accelerated the pace of structural transformation and upgrading of China’s OFDI sector.Analysis of the evolution mechanism revealed that market seeking was the primary motivational driver for the evolution of OFDI in China.Environmental factors were mainly taken into account in the host country’s tax burden as its sensitivity to infrastructure in Asia and OBOR countries was increasing.Therefore,after entering the business expansion stage,AIIB should increase the speed and scale of lending,expand the scope of loans,and improve the loan structure.To promote transformation of economic strategies and OBOR construction,China’s OFDI should adjust the location,and industry layout should be adjusted based on the effectiveness of loans provided by AIIB and maintain a sustained and rapid growth trend in terms of scale.