“后伊斯兰国”时代东南亚的恐怖主义与反恐合作

Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation of Southeast Asia in the “Post-Islamic State Era”

2017年底,在多方力量的联合打击下,“伊斯兰国”(IS)在中东的“根据地”丧失殆尽,国际反恐进入“后伊斯兰国”时代。在此背景下,IS向全球扩散开来。基于地缘、人员等因素,东南亚地区并非IS全球蔓延的核心区域。然而,从地区视角看,东南亚恐怖主义的威胁正不断上升,并处于地区恐怖主义的“第二波高潮”之中。在“后伊斯兰国”时代,东南亚地区恐怖主义的发展与IS的网络化、扁平化转型同步,地区恐怖组织结构分散化,恐怖袭击家庭化,招募对象年轻化,招募方式网络化。同时,东南亚恐怖主义与地区问题复杂交织,呈现共生化、扩散化的新趋势。面对日益严峻的反恐形势,东盟及东南亚各国在多边、双边和国内层面都采取了诸多的应对措施,如海上联合巡逻、情报分享等,但仍显不足。东南亚各国应着眼反恐立场的协调、国内冲突的解决、边境安全的治理、反恐的全面性与针对性等问题,加快推进地区反恐机制的深化,立足“双轨”协调与合力反恐,以更好地遏制地区恐怖主义的滋生与发展。

The“base”of IS in the Middle East was completely lost in 2017 under the attacks of multiple forces.The international anti-terrorism entered the“Post-Islamic State”Era.IS started to spread the other regions,but based on geography and returners factors,Southeast Asia wasn't the core region where IS spread globally.However,the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia is on the rise and is in the“second climax”from a regional perspective.In the“Post-Islamic State”,the development of terrorism in Southeast Asia has a significant“IS color”,such as decentralized organizational structures,family-oriented terrorists attacks,younger recruitment targets,and networked recruitment methods.At the same time,terrorism in Southeast Asia was interwoven with regional issues in a complex way,showing a trend of symbiosis and diffusion.In the face of the increasingly severe terrorism situation,ASEAN and Southeast Asian countries have adopted various counter-terrorism measures at the multilateral,bilateral and domestic levels such as maritime patrols and intelligence sharing.Moreover,there are still some deficiencies.In the future,Southeast Asian countries should focus on such issues as the coordination f counter-terrorism positions,the resolution of domestic conflicts,the governance of border security,the comprehensiveness and pertinence of counter-terrorism,accelerating the construction of regional counter-terrorism mechanism,and basing on the“dual-truck”coordination and joint counter-terrorism,so as to better curb the breeding and development of regional terrorism.