中美战略竞争背景下澳大利亚的“基准战略”

Australia's “Benchmark Strategy” in the Context of Sino-US Strategy Rivalry

随着中国的发展,东亚单极格局逐渐转向两极格局,中美关系步入战略竞争阶段。现有研究认为在此背景下澳大利亚面临“双重战略困境”,将不得不在中美之间选边站,而其以往实施的对冲战略已经失效,近年来澳大利亚的强硬对华政策意味着它已经选择追随美国。本文通过对澳大利亚与中美之间战略依赖关系的辨析发现,“双重战略困境”主要停留在理论层面,实际上澳大利亚并不面临必须在中美之间选边站的战略困局,而仍然存有维持战略平衡的空间。通过分析东亚国际体系结构变迁以及澳大利亚的中等强国战略逻辑,可以发现现阶段澳大利亚最优的战略选择是“基准战略”,即以维护本国战略利益作为在特定问题中相对支持中美两国其中一方的基准,从而最大程度换取中美的战略信任和理解,在中美之间保持战略平衡。而对澳大利亚在国内层面、南太平洋和南海问题上战略行为的梳理和比较,有效证实了澳大利亚的“基准战略”模式。这一研究有助于理解现阶段东亚中小国家的战略转变以及未来东亚国际体系结构的变迁。

As the international system gradually shifts from unipolar to bipolar in East Asia,Sino-US relations have entered a stage of strategic rivalry.Existing research believes that Australia is facing a "dual strategy dilemma" in this context,meanwhile it will have to choose between China and the US,and its previous hedging strategy has been invalidared.Therefore,Australia’s tough strategic actions toward China in recent years have meant that it has chosen to follow the US.By analyzing the strategic dependence among Australia,China and the United States,founding that "dual strategy dilemma" only stays at the theoretical level,so Australia doesn’t face the strategy dilemma of having to choose between China and the US,there is still room for strategy balance.By analyzing the structural transition of international system in East Asia and the logic of Australia’s middle power strategy,founding that the optimal strategic choice to it is the "benchmark strategy",that is,Australia takes defending strategy interests as the benchmark to support the US or China in specific issues,so as to maximize the strategy trust and understanding of these two states,and then maintain a strategy balance between them.By combing and comparing Australia’s strategic behaviors at the domestic level,the South Pacific and the South China Sea,it has effectively confirmed the "benchmark strategy".This research helps to understand the transition of middle and small powers’ strategy and the structural changes of the international system in East Asia.