中国天然橡胶生产能力预测分析(2019—2025年)

Forecasting of Natural Rubber Production Capacity in China(2019-2025)

基于1977年至2018年种植面积数据,依据不同品种的生命周期产量分布并结合中国天然橡胶生产实际情况设置相关假设条件,对天然橡胶生产能力进行测算和分析。结果表明:1990年以来,中国天然橡胶生产能力测算值与实际产量的拟合效果很好,自然灾害和市场价格是造成实际产量和生产能力差距的主要因素;从2014年开始,实际产量与生产能力之间的差距明显拉大,2014年生产能力超过实际产量约0.96万t,到2018年这一差距扩大到21.46万t;2014年以来,橡胶林受低价影响,更新面积下降,可能对未来生产能力造成冲击,但由于2012年以前大规模种植的橡胶树将逐渐进入旺产期,短期内生产能力还会继续增大,预计2024年橡胶产量将到达峰值(116.70万t),然后进入下降阶段。因此,橡胶产业主管部门需要对未来天然橡胶生产能力变化有充分的估计,加大对胶园更新的支持力度,通过各种途径努力提升胶农橡胶收入,稳定种植规模和降低闲置产能。

⑴Background——China is the largest consumer of natural rubber and the fourth largest producer in the world,but the natural rubber self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%.Since 2014,the price of natural rubber has continued to be slumped,farmers'willingness to engage in rubber tapping has decreased,and a large number of rubber gardens lack of management or are uncultivated,which pose a threat to the sustainable development of the rubber industry.It is necessary to increase support for rubber garden renewal,and to increase the rubber revenue through various channels,in order to stabilize planting scale and to reduce idle production capacity.⑵Methods——By taking advantage of the 7-year non-production period of rubber trees,this study uses the statistical data of rubber planting area from 1977 to 2018 and the life cycle production distribution data of different varieties of rubber trees to measure the potential of natural rubber production.The data of 1977 about rubber planting area are from“China's Natural Rubber Fifty Years”.The statistics of rubber planting areas are from the South Asia Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.And the life cycle yield distribution data of different rubber tree varieties are from the Rubber Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences and some research institutions engaged in natural rubber research abroad.⑶Results——The natural rubber production capacity curve from 1990 to 2025 is obtained by setting assumptions and establishing a prediction model for natural rubber production capacity.From 1990 to 2008,the natural rubber production capacity curve rises steadily and maintains a rapid upward trend from 2009 to 2018.By 2019,it begins to keep a low growth rate,and remains stable around 2024.The measured data shows that the production capacity will reach a maximum of 1.1670 million tons in 2024 and it will be 1.1664 million tons in 2025,which means that natural rubber production capacity will begin to decline from 2025.Comparing the actual production and production capacity curves,it is found that the coincidence degree was higher from 1990 to 2002,the actual production in 2003 is slightly higher than the production capacity valuation,and the actual production from 2011 to 2013 is significantly higher than the production capacity,between 58,300 and 80,200 tons.And in 2005,2006 and 2008,the actual output is significantly lower than the production capacity,with 66,400 tons,61,400 tons and 84,100 tons respectively.Besides,the actual production in 2014-2018 is far lower than the production capacity.However,since 2015,the gap between actual production and production capacity has increased significantly.In 2014,the production capacity exceeds the actual output by about 9,600 tons.In 2015,it expanded to 94,400 tons.And by 2018,the natural rubber production capacity exceeds the actual output of 214,600 tons.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——As the rubber trees which planted on a large scale before 2012 have not yet entered the peak period,the production capacity will continue to increase,and it is estimated that the peak value will reach 1.1670 million tons in 2024.In 2018,the production capacity of uncultivated natural rubber accounts for 25%of the actual production.Affected by the low price of natural rubber,farmers'willingness to tap rubber is weak,and the undeveloped production capacity of natural rubber in China will be further expanded.Therefore,it is recommended to increase the income of rubber growers,stabilize the scale of rubber plantations and strengthen the rubber plantations management.Besides,the production organization model should be innovated to solve the problem of natural rubber production capacity in uncultivated and more policy and financial support for the renewal of rubber plantation need to be supplied to reduce the risk of a sharp decline in production capacity.